1998 ESA North Central Branch Meeting Abstract
69 FORECASTING THE INVASION OF EXOTIC ORGANISMS: EXAMPLES FROM MULTIPLE TAXA. R. C. Venette and W. D. Hutchison. Department of Entomology, 219 Hodson Hall, 1980 Folwell Avenue, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
Invasion biology is the study of the general processes driving the range expansion of species into geographically-isolated areas. All invasions (e.g. exotic pests and biological-control agents) progress through the stages of arrival, establishment, integration, and spread. Successful management of invasions requires an answer to the question: where might an exotic species maintain a reproductively successful population? Suitable environments will provide basic growth requirements and only infrequently exceed the physiological tolerances of the invader. Using pink bollworm [Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders)], alfalfa blotch leafminer [Agromyza frontella (Rondani)], and soybean cyst nematode [Heterodera glycines Ichinohe] as case studies, we demonstrate the general utility of climate-matching software, CLIMEX, and the geographic information system, ArcView, to identify geographic regions within the US that are likely to support the establishment of exotic species. CLIMEX provides a valuable first approximation of regions that are at risk of being invaded and, where appropriate, an assessment of the environmental factors most likely to preclude invasions. For instance, cold winter temperatures and high soil moistures limit the probability of successful invasion of pink bollworm in parts of the southeastern US. Conversely, cold temperatures are unlikely to prevent the establishment of soybean cyst nematode throughout the upper Midwest. Climate-matching software may overestimate the likelihood of establishment when factors other than climate drive population dynamics [e.g. Dacnusa dryas (Nixon) parasitizing A. frontella] or underestimate the probability if the invading species can adapt to prevailing environmental conditions.
This paper will be presented on Monday.
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